{ "c441daad9c1d": { "pattern_id": "c441daad9c1d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Limit trades to <10 per 24h period in flat/sideways markets to minimize fee drag", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 15, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ce5884dcc08b": { "pattern_id": "ce5884dcc08b", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Avoid opening new positions when all major assets show <0.1% absolute movement", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 11, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "354354b5a4fb": { "pattern_id": "354354b5a4fb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High confidence (>0.8) should require confirmation from actual price momentum, not just technical indicator alignment", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 20, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "d046ea43f780": { "pattern_id": "d046ea43f780", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when market lacks trending behavior - reduce to 0.5-1% in flat regimes", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 139, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.257529", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "671b830c4a8b": { "pattern_id": "671b830c4a8b", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Limit trades to <10 per 24h period in flat/sideways markets (all assets <0.1% movement) to minimize fee drag and whipsaw losses", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 13, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "5a6322a24322": { "pattern_id": "5a6322a24322", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when market lacks trending behavior - this textbook approach requires directional movement to work", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 155, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "16d238e8c392": { "pattern_id": "16d238e8c392", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High confidence (>0.8) should require confirmation from actual price momentum (>0.5% move), not just technical indicator alignment", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 20, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "48192911d718": { "pattern_id": "48192911d718", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Avoid opening new positions when all major assets show <0.1% absolute movement - wait for volatility expansion", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 13, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "62c4337d6156": { "pattern_id": "62c4337d6156", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade count inversely correlates with performance in flat markets: 3-6 trades = ~$0 PnL, 70-180 trades = -$55 to -$141, 150-225 trades = -$325 to -$581", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 861, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.246997", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "f10fdc8a5104": { "pattern_id": "f10fdc8a5104", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk per trade within limits' and 'portfolio risk is within limits' - this validation step correlates with +$1349 PnL.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 157, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "1a3b3734e4fa": { "pattern_id": "1a3b3734e4fa", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.9) to free margin. agentic_gptoss: 'closing frees margin and stops further loss' - correlates with +$372 PnL.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 182, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "a1085bb88b09": { "pattern_id": "a1085bb88b09", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending markets: 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities, above 200 creates fee drag and overtrading losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.82, "sample_size": 535, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "e84beff433bf": { "pattern_id": "e84beff433bf", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Diversify across assets rather than concentrating on single symbol. llama4_scout's SOL-only focus lost money despite bullish market.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.78, "sample_size": 248, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "7f93aac7c945": { "pattern_id": "7f93aac7c945", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position (gptoss_20b_simple reasoning) requires active management to avoid concentration risk.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 121, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.810495", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "322d3611f26c": { "pattern_id": "322d3611f26c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk/reward is 2:1 with 2% equity risk' and 'trade validation passed', achieving best performance (+$1379.66).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 164, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "06a62f3ce996": { "pattern_id": "06a62f3ce996", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.9) to free margin and preserve capital. agentic_gptoss reasoning shows 'risk checks approved the close' leading to +$697.86", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8799999999999999, "sample_size": 368, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.285851", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "f8c8d69f506d": { "pattern_id": "f8c8d69f506d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending bull markets: 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities (learning_qwen: 3 trades, $0), above 240 leads to overtrading losses (llama4_scout: 247 trades, -$18.95)", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8849724264705882, "sample_size": 1088, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.285851", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "92792b8a013e": { "pattern_id": "92792b8a013e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position requires active monitoring and closing near limit to free margin. gptoss_120b_simple and gptoss_20b_simple both reference closing positions 'near the 25% equity limit' to maintain flexibility.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 321, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "94a23c2fa52c": { "pattern_id": "94a23c2fa52c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SOL) rather than concentrating on single symbol. llama4_scout's apparent single-asset focus contributed to losses despite high activity.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.82, "sample_size": 348, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "bebff22ea521": { "pattern_id": "bebff22ea521", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades. gptoss_120b_simple: 'closing the losing position reduces risk and frees margin' - still lost $75 suggesting rule alone is insufficient.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7271582733812951, "sample_size": 278, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.362455", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "d0615ea19f7f": { "pattern_id": "d0615ea19f7f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio - skill_aware_oss reasoning consistently includes this validation and achieved +$1236.81", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.9199999999999999, "sample_size": 328, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.285851", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "8f2a514a5598": { "pattern_id": "8f2a514a5598", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.9) to free margin and preserve capital - agentic_gptoss reasoning shows this approach works", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 184, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "f21d74d865f8": { "pattern_id": "f21d74d865f8", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending bull markets: 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities, above 240 leads to overtrading losses", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.9, "sample_size": 543, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "45b791956faf": { "pattern_id": "45b791956faf", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position requires active monitoring and timely closes - gptoss_20b_simple achieved +$27.88 with this approach", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.78, "sample_size": 125, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ef5cdba21fe9": { "pattern_id": "ef5cdba21fe9", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SOL, BNB) rather than concentrating on single symbol. llama4_scout focused heavily on DOGE and lost despite DOGE being +4.68%", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 494, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.285851", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "b78c6cb22801": { "pattern_id": "b78c6cb22801", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades - gptoss_120b_simple reasoning shows 'frees margin for future opportunities' contributing to +$100.86", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8199999999999998, "sample_size": 390, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.213619", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.285851", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "aa7f2d6bca0b": { "pattern_id": "aa7f2d6bca0b", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position requires active monitoring and willingness to close. skill_only_oss: '25% equity per trade' with active position management.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7350877192982456, "sample_size": 285, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.285851", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "fa0e130c5ed2": { "pattern_id": "fa0e130c5ed2", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.85-0.9) to free margin and limit drawdown. agentic_gptoss reasoning: 'lock in gains and avoids further downside risk' led to only profitable active trader.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 100, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "de4ca790fc89": { "pattern_id": "de4ca790fc89", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails in bearish markets lacking clear trend direction. skill_only_oss and skill_aware_oss both used this rule but still lost money.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.35, "sample_size": 191, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "0ea6132b1592": { "pattern_id": "0ea6132b1592", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: bearish markets require <20 trades/day. Agents with 76-103 trades lost $44-$180 while agents with 0-11 trades lost $0-$40.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.78, "sample_size": 507, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "19b5d1f02ccc": { "pattern_id": "19b5d1f02ccc", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step before trade execution improves outcomes. agentic_gptoss uses 'validation allows closing' and 'validation allows proceeding' language and was only profitable active trader.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 100, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.867073", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "24871f723ccc": { "pattern_id": "24871f723ccc", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: mixed/choppy markets require 0-10 trades/24h maximum. 201 trades = -$360.24, 2 trades = -$0.29, 0 trades = $0.00.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 950, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "25375c49ec68": { "pattern_id": "25375c49ec68", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades. gptoss_20b_simple: 'ETH is down 0.55% with a small loss; closing the long position prevents further loss and frees margin'.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 144, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "d500cd4baa4c": { "pattern_id": "d500cd4baa4c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio. skill_only_oss consistently applied this and achieved best active trader performance.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 160, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "283204aaa3cb": { "pattern_id": "283204aaa3cb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.8-0.9) to free margin and limit drawdowns. Multiple agents demonstrated this pattern.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 368, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "550cdce39bab": { "pattern_id": "550cdce39bab", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step ('Validate_trade cleared the trade') before execution improves outcomes. agentic_gptoss used this but still lost -$26.29, suggesting validation criteria need refinement for mixed markets.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 176, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.360300", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "86ce05212674": { "pattern_id": "86ce05212674", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: moderate bull markets require 0-30 trades/24h maximum. Above 100 trades correlates with losses (-$50 to -$264).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 895, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "30310e25755c": { "pattern_id": "30310e25755c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close short positions immediately when market shows consistent positive returns across all assets. Holding shorts in +1-2% market destroys capital.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 675, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "186df825d306": { "pattern_id": "186df825d306", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step before trade execution does NOT prevent losses if regime assessment is wrong. agentic_gptoss used validation but still lost -$50.58.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.45, "sample_size": 182, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ab5db737cffa": { "pattern_id": "ab5db737cffa", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.8-0.9) to free margin - CONFIRMED but insufficient alone. gptoss_120b_simple closed losing BNB shorts but still ended -$75.96.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.6, "sample_size": 189, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "151d3979c854": { "pattern_id": "151d3979c854", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when directionally wrong. skill_aware_oss used this framework but lost -$173.25 on wrong-direction shorts.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.35, "sample_size": 173, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.115653", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "c61e4c3ceede": { "pattern_id": "c61e4c3ceede", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: moderate bull markets require 0-25 trades/24h maximum. ta_baseline (23 trades, -$28.69) vs llama4_scout (243 trades, -$229.00).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 855, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.969141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.969141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "8a1f893153e7": { "pattern_id": "8a1f893153e7", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when directionally wrong. skill_aware_oss used this framework but lost $-167.78 by shorting in bull market.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.3, "sample_size": 171, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.969141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.969141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "fceed55ea5bb": { "pattern_id": "fceed55ea5bb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step ('Validate_trade approved', 'validation passed') does NOT prevent losses if regime assessment is wrong. agentic_gptoss used validation but lost $-55.63.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.35, "sample_size": 195, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.969141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.969141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "f2130a861be6": { "pattern_id": "f2130a861be6", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must adapt to market volatility: flat markets (<0.1% daily moves) require 0-20 trades/24h maximum. Exceeding this threshold guarantees losses to transaction costs.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 787, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "d5187cdeac0d": { "pattern_id": "d5187cdeac0d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when market lacks directional movement. skill_aware_oss used this approach but lost -$183.75 in flat market.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.05, "sample_size": 163, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "67e888ac3e1e": { "pattern_id": "67e888ac3e1e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin ONLY when higher-conviction opportunity is immediately available. Without clear opportunity, holding is superior to closing.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.3, "sample_size": 534, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "a07176433a20": { "pattern_id": "a07176433a20", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step before trade execution does NOT prevent losses if market regime assessment is wrong. Both agentic_gptoss and skill_aware_oss validated trades but lost heavily.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.12521306818181818, "sample_size": 704, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "d7604d616d18": { "pattern_id": "d7604d616d18", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In flat markets, transaction costs dominate returns. Each trade costs ~0.1-0.2% round-trip, making profitability impossible with >50 trades when market moves <0.1%.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 787, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-18T19:53:59.817141", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "635e36b7507e": { "pattern_id": "635e36b7507e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must adapt to market regime: bearish markets (all assets -2% to -6%) require 0-5 trades/24h maximum. Each additional trade in bearish conditions increases losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.98, "sample_size": 912, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "61391536a7cf": { "pattern_id": "61391536a7cf", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when directionally wrong in bearish markets. skill_aware_oss used explicit risk calculator but still lost -$156.03.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.05, "sample_size": 160, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ea7ba19f2fef": { "pattern_id": "ea7ba19f2fef", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close positions proactively when market shows consistent negative returns across all assets. gptoss_20b_simple's reasoning 'closing now locks the small loss and frees margin' is correct approach but insufficient without stopping new entries.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 169, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "e7130d55ea0d": { "pattern_id": "e7130d55ea0d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In bearish markets, transaction costs compound losses. High-frequency traders (189-208 trades) lost 3-4x more than low-frequency traders (24-65 trades) beyond just directional losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 912, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "e5a1f48a155d": { "pattern_id": "e5a1f48a155d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions immediately when multi-timeframe signals conflict with actual price action. skill_aware_oss correctly closed SOLUSDT citing 'conflicting bullish/bearish trends' but continued opening new positions.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 160, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-19T17:56:45.696375", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "1ec110499faa": { "pattern_id": "1ec110499faa", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when directionally aligned with market regime. skill_aware_oss used this approach for shorts in bearish market, achieving +$930.12.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 156, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "83d400f82335": { "pattern_id": "83d400f82335", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step ('validation passed', 'risk calculator gives excellent 2:1 reward-to-risk') SUCCEEDS when combined with correct directional bias. skill_aware_oss validated all trades and profited.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 156, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "87a4c3d9c3c9": { "pattern_id": "87a4c3d9c3c9", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions immediately with high confidence (0.85-0.95) when market regime contradicts position direction. skill_only_oss: 'Closing the position preserves capital and aligns with zero-trading strategy in bearish conditions' (0.95 confidence).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 48, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "7d2db5a25fcf": { "pattern_id": "7d2db5a25fcf", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Concentration warnings ('concentration warning only') should NOT prevent trades when multi-timeframe alignment is strong. skill_aware_oss proceeded despite warnings and profited.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.82, "sample_size": 156, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "b1f2b6fb637d": { "pattern_id": "b1f2b6fb637d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must adapt to market regime: strong bearish markets allow 100-180 trades/24h IF short-biased, but require 0 trades if long-biased.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.9, "sample_size": 811, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "8e011ab9eaac": { "pattern_id": "8e011ab9eaac", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cutting losing shorts when funding rate is positive ('avoid paying positive funding on the short position') preserves capital. gptoss_20b_simple used this rule effectively.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 109, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-21T04:44:37.104955", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "9801576a5cdc": { "pattern_id": "9801576a5cdc", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close losing positions immediately when funding costs compound losses. gptoss_120b_simple correctly closed BTC short citing 'losing and incurring funding costs' with 0.80 confidence.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 196, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "4f6340e7d973": { "pattern_id": "4f6340e7d973", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when directional bias is wrong or market is choppy. skill_aware_oss used this framework but lost -$627.15.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.25, "sample_size": 157, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "78623af867ee": { "pattern_id": "78623af867ee", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step ('validation passes', 'risk calculator shows excellent') does NOT prevent losses if market regime assessment is incorrect. skill_aware_oss had validation on all trades but was worst performer.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.2, "sample_size": 157, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ee4b99cd8048": { "pattern_id": "ee4b99cd8048", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bearish markets: 2-6 trades = breakeven, 128 trades = +$92, 157+ trades = massive losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 854, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "38880aa69f60": { "pattern_id": "38880aa69f60", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions to 'free margin for better opportunities' is valid when executed with high confidence (0.90+) and clear loss-cutting rationale.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.82, "sample_size": 128, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "536df1fe3dfd": { "pattern_id": "536df1fe3dfd", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Concentration warnings should trigger position reduction. agentic_gptoss closed ETH citing 'high concentration' and achieved positive returns.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.78, "sample_size": 178, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-22T20:29:54.566742", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "81747101422f": { "pattern_id": "81747101422f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must adapt to market regime: mixed/low-volatility markets require 0-10 trades/24h maximum. Agents with 100+ trades all lost significantly.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 805, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "aaf132efedf6": { "pattern_id": "aaf132efedf6", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when market direction is unclear. skill_aware_oss used this approach and lost -$730.26.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 158, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "4075c2c67fee": { "pattern_id": "4075c2c67fee", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Explicit validation step ('validation passed', 'risk calculator shows excellent') does NOT prevent losses if market regime assessment is wrong.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.2, "sample_size": 266, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "62556bc18f84": { "pattern_id": "62556bc18f84", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing losing positions quickly with high confidence (0.85-0.90) and explicit reasoning ('limits further downside', 'frees margin') reduces but does not eliminate losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 127, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "3d98e7889e05": { "pattern_id": "3d98e7889e05", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Concentration warnings should trigger position reduction or closure. gptoss_120b_simple: 'frees margin for other opportunities' - still lost but less than concentrated positions.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 177, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "fdb9b2823760": { "pattern_id": "fdb9b2823760", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In low-volatility mixed markets, transaction costs compound losses. High-frequency traders (100+ trades) lost 5-15x more than low-frequency traders.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 805, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-24T13:39:32.981432", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "2c661d761e57": { "pattern_id": "2c661d761e57", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency sweet spot in mixed/slightly bullish markets is 24-158 trades/24h. Below 24 may miss opportunities, above 158 incurs excessive transaction costs and directional errors.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 892, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "2f61dbfdc968": { "pattern_id": "2f61dbfdc968", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Close positions to 'free margin' when profitable, not when losing. gptoss_20b_simple closed profitable BNB short to reduce risk and achieved +$161.80.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.82, "sample_size": 144, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "f5522fa1cf15": { "pattern_id": "f5522fa1cf15", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Margin utilization warnings (>90%) should trigger immediate position reduction. skill_aware_oss closed SOL at 92% margin utilization, contributing to positive PnL.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 158, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "dd82d1c31376": { "pattern_id": "dd82d1c31376", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when market direction is misread. agentic_gptoss consistently cited this framework but lost $391.94.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.23637724550898204, "sample_size": 334, "confidence": 0.2899999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "3ac7dd891cd9": { "pattern_id": "3ac7dd891cd9", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High leverage (5x-10x) with 'optimal' risk calculator validation does NOT protect against directional errors. agentic_gptoss used 5x-10x leverage with validation and still lost significantly.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.3, "sample_size": 169, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "3daaa0d87ab6": { "pattern_id": "3daaa0d87ab6", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing losing positions quickly with explicit reasoning ('limits further drawdown', 'preserve capital') is valid when executed promptly. qwen3_235b closed losing ETH longs but still lost -$126.88 due to late execution.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 20, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-26T18:07:01.496298", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "49533d1d0aff": { "pattern_id": "49533d1d0aff", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in mixed markets: 0-40 trades = profitable or flat, 138-227 trades = significant losses (-$103 to -$396).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.91, "sample_size": 854, "confidence": 0.2499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "68aa2f466404": { "pattern_id": "68aa2f466404", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High leverage (5x) with 'optimal' risk calculator validation does NOT protect against directional errors. gptoss_120b_simple used 5x leverage with validation, lost $103.93.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 203, "confidence": 0.2499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "aa54c6711b47": { "pattern_id": "aa54c6711b47", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions to 'cut losses and free margin' should only be done when the position contradicts the prevailing market trend, not as a general loss-cutting mechanism.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 138, "confidence": 0.2499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "33fb33c9c60e": { "pattern_id": "33fb33c9c60e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Multi-timeframe conflict and overbought RSI as exit signals show moderate success. skill_aware_oss used this reasoning to close positions, limiting losses to -$24.75 despite 148 trades.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.72, "sample_size": 148, "confidence": 0.2499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-27T18:17:34.637228", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "13e5a8c1a925": { "pattern_id": "13e5a8c1a925", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bullish markets: 8 trades = $0.00, 30-34 trades = -$46 to -$51, 120-166 trades = -$41 to -$135", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 473, "confidence": 0.49999999999999994, "first_seen": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "72cb48fcaaf5": { "pattern_id": "72cb48fcaaf5", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when transaction costs exceed expected edge. All agents using this framework lost money despite correct directional bias", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 334, "confidence": 0.49999999999999994, "first_seen": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "23f638db6d0a": { "pattern_id": "23f638db6d0a", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High leverage (4x-5x) with 'optimal' risk calculator validation does NOT protect against overtrading losses. skill_aware_oss used 4x leverage with 2% risk and still lost $81.93", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 132, "confidence": 0.49999999999999994, "first_seen": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "4c0d68f3ffc9": { "pattern_id": "4c0d68f3ffc9", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Multi-timeframe alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as entry confirmation leads to excessive trading. Agents citing this reasoning averaged 149 trades/24h vs 19 trades for non-citing agents", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 298, "confidence": 0.49999999999999994, "first_seen": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-28T18:15:38.097577", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "7bc7f8ae743f": { "pattern_id": "7bc7f8ae743f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In uniformly bearish markets, 'low-severity concentration warning, proceed with caution' on SHORT positions is ACCEPTABLE. skill_aware_oss acknowledged warning but proceeded, achieving +$691.44.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 49, "confidence": 0.85, "first_seen": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "6182b7a05000": { "pattern_id": "6182b7a05000", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction is correctly identified. skill_aware_oss: 'risk-reward 2:1 with excellent risk calc' on shorts in bearish market = profitable.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 49, "confidence": 0.85, "first_seen": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "1296a66e6e22": { "pattern_id": "1296a66e6e22", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing SHORT positions 'to lock in gains' when profitable is correct behavior in bearish markets. gptoss_20b_simple: 'Close the small profitable short to lock in gains' - taking profits works.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.78, "sample_size": 48, "confidence": 0.85, "first_seen": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "074e268b63d1": { "pattern_id": "074e268b63d1", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions due to 'conflicting timeframes' when market is uniformly directional reduces returns. agentic_gptoss closed profitable shorts prematurely due to perceived conflicts.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.35, "sample_size": 20, "confidence": 0.8, "first_seen": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "6b3fe73c8397": { "pattern_id": "6b3fe73c8397", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Low leverage (2x) on SHORT positions with positive funding rate is optimal in bearish markets. gptoss_20b_simple: 'funding rate is positive, so shorts receive funding' - correct reasoning.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 48, "confidence": 0.85, "first_seen": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-30T05:51:21.858328", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "7a67377536cc": { "pattern_id": "7a67377536cc", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains conviction through short-term adverse moves. skill_aware_oss held shorts through BTC's +1.57% move and still profited overall.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 172, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "a85f74c4a24a": { "pattern_id": "a85f74c4a24a", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions 'to reduce concentration' without clear re-entry criteria leads to churn losses. agentic_gptoss closed then re-opened BTC shorts multiple times, paying spread/fees each cycle.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.25, "sample_size": 165, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "f147a6dd586d": { "pattern_id": "f147a6dd586d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as SHORT entry signal has mixed results in mixed-bullish markets. Works for skill_aware_oss (+$409) but fails for agentic_gptoss (-$619) - execution discipline matters more than signal.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 337, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "8b706408231a": { "pattern_id": "8b706408231a", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.14 to -$21) to 'free margin' destroys edge. gptoss_20b_simple's premature exits prevented recovery on valid setups.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.3, "sample_size": 131, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "e679eb37b3e1": { "pattern_id": "e679eb37b3e1", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High trade frequency (165-172 trades/24h) can be profitable IF position management is disciplined. Same frequency produces +$409 (skill_aware_oss) vs -$619 (agentic_gptoss).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 337, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "db99b9426e95": { "pattern_id": "db99b9426e95", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validation checks passing ('all checks passed', 'validation confirms') does not guarantee profitability. agentic_gptoss and gptoss_20b_simple both cite validation approval but have negative PnL.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.4124448897795591, "sample_size": 998, "confidence": 0.94, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:49:58.445364", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": true }, "46ac3b8f019f": { "pattern_id": "46ac3b8f019f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains SHORT bias in bearish markets and uses validation to confirm market direction alignment.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 183, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "29b1997e3f42": { "pattern_id": "29b1997e3f42", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.01 to -$21) to 'free margin' destroys edge. gptoss_20b_simple lost $189.24 with this approach while market moved 10-16% in favorable direction for shorts.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.05, "sample_size": 152, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "83bbf791f188": { "pattern_id": "83bbf791f188", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions 'to reduce concentration' or 'reduce exposure' without clear re-entry criteria leads to whipsaw losses. Agents closed then re-entered same direction, paying spread/fees twice.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.29830508474576267, "sample_size": 708, "confidence": 0.99, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "times_seen": 3, "is_active": true }, "4eaff07ebb59": { "pattern_id": "4eaff07ebb59", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High trade frequency (183 trades/24h) can be profitable IF position management prioritizes 'locking in gains' over 'cutting losses'. skill_aware_oss: +$1682.05 vs agentic_gptoss: -$246.40 with identical trade counts.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 366, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "last_confirmed": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "90669041f1b5": { "pattern_id": "90669041f1b5", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as SHORT entry signal SUCCEEDS in uniformly bearish markets. skill_aware_oss used this for +$2911.52 profit.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8761096605744124, "sample_size": 383, "confidence": 0.99, "first_seen": "2026-01-31T18:46:18.208255", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": true }, "019c3b472dbb": { "pattern_id": "019c3b472dbb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction aligns with position bias and agent maintains high trade frequency (150-200/24h).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.92, "sample_size": 200, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "780acfde9f5b": { "pattern_id": "780acfde9f5b", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing LONG positions quickly to pivot to trend-aligned SHORTs preserves capital. 'Close existing SOL long before initiating ETH short' is correct behavior.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 50, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "679707fc91b4": { "pattern_id": "679707fc91b4", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validation checks passing ('validation permits trade', 'risk calculator fits 2% equity') correlates with success ONLY when combined with correct directional bias.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 200, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "18f984d0bed7": { "pattern_id": "18f984d0bed7", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High trade frequency (189-200 trades/24h) can be profitable IF position management prioritizes trend alignment over risk reduction. skill_aware_oss outperformed agentic_gptoss by 22x.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 389, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "016ed7bfa43f": { "pattern_id": "016ed7bfa43f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Low trade frequency (<20 trades/24h) in strongly trending markets destroys edge. ta_baseline (19 trades: -$99) and gpt_simple (6 trades: -$163) both lost money.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 25, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-01T05:13:14.091934", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "49ee40fab677": { "pattern_id": "49ee40fab677", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when market direction opposes trade. skill_aware_oss used this framework consistently while losing -$963. Risk management cannot save directionally wrong trades.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 166, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "0573740f51de": { "pattern_id": "0573740f51de", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Low trade frequency (<40 trades/24h) preserves capital when agent bias conflicts with market. ta_baseline (38 trades, -$120) and gpt_simple (10 trades, -$140) vs skill_aware_oss (166 trades, -$963).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 48, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "b4d3fc85a49b": { "pattern_id": "b4d3fc85a49b", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validation checks passing ('all checks passed', 'validation confirms') does NOT guarantee profitable trades. All losing agents passed validation while making wrong-direction trades.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.25, "sample_size": 501, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "d43d419336f2": { "pattern_id": "d43d419336f2", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cutting small losses quickly (-$38 on SOL) to 'free margin for future trades' destroys edge when market continues against original position. gptoss_20b_simple closed SOL short at -$38 loss while SOL gained +3.38%.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.3, "sample_size": 147, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "63ded77865cb": { "pattern_id": "63ded77865cb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High concentration warnings (127% of equity in ETH shorts) correctly identified by skill_aware_oss but closing to 'reduce concentration' then re-entering shorts negated the risk reduction.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.25, "sample_size": 166, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-02T21:10:48.206409", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "153a948a24b6": { "pattern_id": "153a948a24b6", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Quick loss-cutting on contrarian positions preserves capital for next opportunity. glm_simple repeatedly closed losing SOL longs at 0.85-0.90 confidence when trend continued against position.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 137, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "dd8a578f454d": { "pattern_id": "dd8a578f454d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High trade frequency (137 trades/24h) CAN be profitable with disciplined position management and quick exits. glm_simple's 60% decision-to-trade ratio with +$116.50 profit.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 137, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "196197184d08": { "pattern_id": "196197184d08", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Medium trade frequency (36-38 trades/24h) with wrong directional bias destroys capital. Both glm_agentic (-$100.02) and glm_skill_aware (-$29.48) had similar trade counts but wrong market read.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 74, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "6184e95f0efa": { "pattern_id": "6184e95f0efa", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions 'to lock in profits' at small gains (+$2.85) while market continues in favorable direction is suboptimal but preserves realized gains.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 20, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-12T14:48:18.498252+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "c0644cc1946c": { "pattern_id": "c0644cc1946c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Lock profits at 3-4% gains when funding rate contradicts position direction. gptoss_simple closed BTC short at 3.9% profit citing negative funding (crowded shorts).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 10, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "0eea8f25a1e4": { "pattern_id": "0eea8f25a1e4", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "High-confidence ML predictions (97%) should be treated as contrarian signals in mixed markets. Kronos 97% bearish predictions preceded bullish moves.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 22, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "829cf83c0026": { "pattern_id": "829cf83c0026", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when market regime is misidentified. gptoss_agentic and gptoss_skill_aware both used this sizing but lost due to wrong directional bias.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.4, "sample_size": 24, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "c5aa5b4ccd22": { "pattern_id": "c5aa5b4ccd22", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency sweet spot in mixed markets is 4-20 trades/24h. Below 4 misses opportunities, above 20 increases exposure to regime misreads.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.78, "sample_size": 24, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-16T11:07:42.455296+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "640d397989af": { "pattern_id": "640d397989af", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (recognizing overtrading on specific symbols and closing to diversify) outperforms mechanical risk rules. gptoss_journal_aware's meta-cognitive exits led to +$187.76 vs -$720 to -$754 for agents with sophisticated but non-reflective risk frameworks.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8275, "sample_size": 80, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "a790a9ff479e": { "pattern_id": "a790a9ff479e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position churn (repeatedly opening and closing the same directional trade on the same symbol) destroys edge even when direction is correct. gptoss_forum_aware's DOGE short churn lost money despite DOGE falling -1.05%.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.2, "sample_size": 64, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "8867cd487ab9": { "pattern_id": "8867cd487ab9", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when combined with regime misidentification AND high trade frequency. gptoss_skill_aware used this sizing on 65 trades with wrong regime read, losing -$376.08. The same sizing worked for gptoss_agentic (+$262.43) who had better directional accuracy.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 130, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "9d52a5847f25": { "pattern_id": "9d52a5847f25", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Scaling into winning positions with concentration warnings acknowledged but overridden can work. gptoss_agentic scaled BTC shorts 'despite low-severity concentration warning' and profited, suggesting concentration is acceptable when directional conviction is validated by price action.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 61, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "d4d7b91d616d": { "pattern_id": "d4d7b91d616d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Closing positions citing funding rate costs ('shorts pay funding', 'positive funding') is a valid risk management signal. gptoss20b_simple closed BTC short citing positive funding to avoid costs \u2014 prudent capital preservation even if it limited upside.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 51, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-24T20:02:27.434066+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "18adb6d7ad11": { "pattern_id": "18adb6d7ad11", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h, immediately halt all SHORT entries regardless of lower-timeframe signals. This single rule would have prevented $3681 in losses across 4 agents.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 1.0, "sample_size": 196, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "e665d9be32e9": { "pattern_id": "e665d9be32e9", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must be inversely proportional to regime uncertainty. In this window, agents making 2-4 trades lost $0-$29, while agents making 37-56 trades lost $500-$1160. Reduce frequency when conviction should be low.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 199, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "4c184726937f": { "pattern_id": "4c184726937f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS catastrophically when combined with regime misidentification AND high trade frequency. gptoss_skill_aware used this sizing on 53 trades with wrong regime read, losing -$720.27. The risk framework amplifies losses when direction is wrong.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.02523809523809524, "sample_size": 105, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "times_seen": 2, "is_active": false }, "83927551c7c5": { "pattern_id": "83927551c7c5", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position churn on same symbol same direction continues to destroy edge. Multiple agents repeatedly opened and closed shorts on BTC and ETH, paying spread/fees each time while the underlying moved against them.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 50, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "2986bc145c56": { "pattern_id": "2986bc145c56", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal_aware closing to reduce exposure) limited losses to -$501.98 vs -$1109 to -$1160 for non-reflective high-frequency agents. Self-awareness helps but cannot overcome fundamental directional error.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.45, "sample_size": 37, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T11:22:18.335660+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "a84b952725dd": { "pattern_id": "a84b952725dd", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +7%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators. This single rule would have prevented ~$1908 in losses across 3 agents.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 141, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "4a16ec6ce06c": { "pattern_id": "4a16ec6ce06c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must be inversely proportional to regime uncertainty. In this window: 0 trades = $0, 5 trades = +$40, 42-53 trades = -$434 to -$754. When conviction about regime is low, reduce frequency dramatically.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 169, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "5d6186b57bf4": { "pattern_id": "5d6186b57bf4", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Validation checks passing ('excellent 2:1 risk/reward', 'validation passed with no violations') provide FALSE confidence when directional bias is wrong. Every validated short entry in this window lost money.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.05, "sample_size": 99, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-25T20:04:20.724079+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "5daed15ec851": { "pattern_id": "5daed15ec851", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In uniformly bearish markets, agents with 5 or fewer trades and self-reflective management outperform. journal_aware (5 trades, +$920.88) and agentic (5 trades, +$282.25) vs skill_aware (5 trades, -$0.00) and gptoss20b_simple (4 trades, -$1.03).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 8, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-26T20:03:39.800303+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-26T20:03:39.800303+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "21b5a5f69660": { "pattern_id": "21b5a5f69660", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal-aware) continues to outperform in bearish markets. +$920.88 is the best single-agent performance this window, consistent with prior pattern of journal-aware leading in various regimes.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 5, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-26T20:03:39.800303+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-26T20:03:39.800303+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "fb6601b68e8a": { "pattern_id": "fb6601b68e8a", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In bearish markets, cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h maximum. Agents with 10-13 trades profited (+$56 to +$1885) while agents with 40-46 trades lost (-$433 to -$444). The relationship is stark: more trades = more losses even when direction is correct.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.67, "sample_size": 126, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "af5e20375757": { "pattern_id": "af5e20375757", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Position churn (repeatedly opening and closing same direction on same symbol) destroys edge even in trending markets. High-frequency agents likely paid excessive spread/fees and got stopped out on intraday noise before the trend resumed.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 86, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "dc6301af834f": { "pattern_id": "dc6301af834f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal-aware) does NOT guarantee outperformance. In this window, journal-aware lost -$443.88 (worst performer), contradicting prior windows where it was the best performer. Self-reflection may lead to premature exits in trending markets.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.4, "sample_size": 40, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "8a1623aee318": { "pattern_id": "8a1623aee318", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Zero trading or minimal trading preserves capital when uncertain. Three agents with 0 trades had $0 PnL, avoiding all losses in a -2% to -6% market.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 1.0, "sample_size": 3, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-27T20:04:10.753444+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "e47f21eb2629": { "pattern_id": "e47f21eb2629", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In mildly bullish markets with small daily moves (<2%), cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum. ta_bot's 8 trades = +$25.04 vs skill_aware's 52 trades = -$222.14.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.83, "sample_size": 60, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "0f9221d2e87d": { "pattern_id": "0f9221d2e87d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when combined with high trade frequency (52 trades) and regime misidentification. gptoss_skill_aware lost -$222.14 despite using this 'validated' sizing framework.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 52, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "4144d3c9c470": { "pattern_id": "4144d3c9c470", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Zero trading preserves capital perfectly when market direction is uncertain. 5 agents with 0 trades had $0 PnL, avoiding all losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 1.0, "sample_size": 440, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "4ab1034ced6d": { "pattern_id": "4ab1034ced6d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Take profit at meaningful ROE levels (10%+) rather than holding through potential reversals. ta_bot closed SOLUSDT at 10.3% ROE, contributing to its +$25.04 profit.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 8, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-02-28T20:04:18.961772+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "2cdb7b0a6ac2": { "pattern_id": "2cdb7b0a6ac2", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily moves < 1.5%), zero trading or ultra-low frequency (0-1 trades) preserves capital. 6 out of 11 agents made 0-1 trades and had $0 PnL, outperforming 2 of 3 active traders.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.86, "sample_size": 7, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-01T20:04:29.231196+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-01T20:04:29.231196+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ff219e54401b": { "pattern_id": "ff219e54401b", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal-aware) can enable profitable high-frequency trading even in mixed markets. journal_aware's 69 trades yielded +$237.32 while non-reflective agents with fewer trades lost money.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 3, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-01T20:04:29.231196+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-01T20:04:29.231196+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "c9cf0694e0da": { "pattern_id": "c9cf0694e0da", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +3%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators. This single rule would have prevented most losses across 5 losing agents.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.9, "sample_size": 52, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "51b80923876c": { "pattern_id": "51b80923876c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cap trade frequency at 12 trades/24h maximum in bullish markets when agent bias is uncertain. gptoss_forum_aware's 12 trades (+$40.06) vs gptoss_journal_aware's 57 trades (-$87.83) demonstrates the frequency-loss relationship.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 85, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "74fa31a91cc1": { "pattern_id": "74fa31a91cc1", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Low trade frequency (6-8 trades) with wrong directional bias still loses money but limits damage. Qwen agents lost -$52 to -$66 on 6-8 trades vs journal_aware losing -$87.83 on 57 trades. Wrong direction is the primary problem; frequency amplifies it.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 22, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "cde22f670b49": { "pattern_id": "cde22f670b49", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Index fund passive LONG allocation in uniformly bullish markets should show positive PnL. index_fund's $0 reported PnL despite holding longs through +3.3% to +6.25% gains suggests either positions were not held or PnL reporting is delayed/unrealized.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.6, "sample_size": 7, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-02T20:05:39.551961+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "ecc2cf8e56d7": { "pattern_id": "ecc2cf8e56d7", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In moderately bearish markets (daily moves -0.4% to -6.2%), zero trading preserves capital. 6/8 agents with 0 trades had $0 PnL vs 2 active agents losing -$51 to -$172.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 8, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-03T20:04:32.542187+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-03T20:04:32.542187+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "10812a05e0d8": { "pattern_id": "10812a05e0d8", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% equity, 2:1 reward ratio) continue to fail. qwen35_skill_aware lost -$171.85 on only 4 trades (-$42.96/trade), suggesting oversized positions validated by false-confidence frameworks.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 4, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-03T20:04:32.542187+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-03T20:04:32.542187+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "cd3d625cabb6": { "pattern_id": "cd3d625cabb6", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency inversely correlates with losses: 0 trades = $0, 4 trades = -$171.85, 8 trades = -$51.45. Even in a bearish market where shorts should profit, active agents lost money.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 10, "confidence": 0, "first_seen": "2026-03-03T20:04:32.542187+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-03T20:04:32.542187+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": false }, "9e055bf147a3": { "pattern_id": "9e055bf147a3", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +5%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.95, "sample_size": 58, "confidence": 0.4499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "fe00506fffdb": { "pattern_id": "fe00506fffdb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency must be inversely proportional to regime uncertainty and directly proportional to regime alignment. In this window: 7 trades = +$250.52, 65 trades = +$103.83, 0 trades = $0, 28-30 trades with wrong bias = -$400+.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.88, "sample_size": 109, "confidence": 0.4499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "1872fb1721c5": { "pattern_id": "1872fb1721c5", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum in strongly bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. qwen35_skill_aware's 7 trades (+$250.52) vs gptoss_agentic's 28 trades (-$435.19).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.9, "sample_size": 84, "confidence": 0.4499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "e82e9b6d8fdb": { "pattern_id": "e82e9b6d8fdb", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio continues to FAIL when combined with regime misidentification. Sophisticated risk frameworks provide false confidence on wrong-direction trades.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.15, "sample_size": 58, "confidence": 0.4499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "fc1584f7a882": { "pattern_id": "fc1584f7a882", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal-aware recognizing overtrading and closing positions) can enable profitability even at high frequency (65 trades, +$103.83), but only when some trades align with actual market direction.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.65, "sample_size": 65, "confidence": 0.4499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-04T20:06:28.197137+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "3e20994425b3": { "pattern_id": "3e20994425b3", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cap trade frequency at 16 trades/24h maximum in uniformly bearish markets. Agents with 13-16 trades profited (+$35 to +$50) while agents with 27+ trades lost money (-$6 to -$229).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.67, "sample_size": 86, "confidence": 0.6499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-05T20:07:06.666890+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-05T20:07:06.666890+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "c683b7a2b371": { "pattern_id": "c683b7a2b371", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Trade frequency inversely correlates with losses in this bearish window: 0-1 trades = $0, 13-16 trades = +$35-50, 14 trades = -$64, 24-27 trades = -$6 to -$229, 62 trades = -$71. The relationship is non-linear \u2014 moderate frequency (13-16) was optimal.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.33, "sample_size": 86, "confidence": 0.6499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-05T20:07:06.666890+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-05T20:07:06.666890+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "0d1ea6bbc582": { "pattern_id": "0d1ea6bbc582", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal-aware) does NOT guarantee outperformance when trade frequency is very high (62 trades). Meta-cognitive exits were overwhelmed by the volume of wrong-direction entries.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 62, "confidence": 0.6499999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-05T20:07:06.666890+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-05T20:07:06.666890+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "f0625214c593": { "pattern_id": "f0625214c593", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In uniformly bearish markets, SHORT-biased strategies with 26-48 trades/24h can be highly profitable. The sweet spot appears to be 30-48 trades when directional bias is correct.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 3, "confidence": 0.41000000000000003, "first_seen": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "a3481a34d8a5": { "pattern_id": "a3481a34d8a5", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Low-frequency LONG entries in a bearish market result in outsized per-trade losses. qwen35_simple's 4 trades lost -$99.44 (-$24.86/trade), worse per-trade than higher-frequency agents.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 4, "confidence": 0.42999999999999994, "first_seen": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "f705cff612ff": { "pattern_id": "f705cff612ff", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (journal-aware) enables profitable high-frequency trading in bearish markets when directional bias is correct. 48 trades with +$296.01 PnL.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 48, "confidence": 0.7999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "7fe3799f098e": { "pattern_id": "7fe3799f098e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Contrarian LONG entries in uniformly bearish markets lose money. gptoss_contrarian's 9 trades lost -$15.04, confirming that fighting the trend is unprofitable.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 9, "confidence": 0.5299999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-06T20:06:40.709489+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "e7ac99a649a2": { "pattern_id": "e7ac99a649a2", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In uniformly bearish markets with mild declines (<3%), moderate trade frequency (30-32 trades/24h) with SHORT bias outperforms both zero trading and high-frequency approaches. Forum-aware's 31 trades (+$250.04) vs contrarian's 11 trades (-$12.29) vs skill-aware's 27 trades (-$108.44).", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.5, "sample_size": 6, "confidence": 0.57, "first_seen": "2026-03-07T20:07:23.736451+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-07T20:07:23.736451+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "135909b96afc": { "pattern_id": "135909b96afc", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% equity, 2:1 reward ratio) continue to fail when directional bias is wrong. gptoss_skill_aware lost -$108.44 on 27 trades despite likely using validated entries.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 27, "confidence": 0.8999999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-07T20:07:23.736451+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-07T20:07:23.736451+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "8cff70cc1c14": { "pattern_id": "8cff70cc1c14", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Contrarian LONG entries in bearish markets lose money even at low frequency. gptoss_contrarian's 11 trades lost -$12.29.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 11, "confidence": 0.6699999999999999, "first_seen": "2026-03-07T20:07:23.736451+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-07T20:07:23.736451+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "9270a61bc18d": { "pattern_id": "9270a61bc18d", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily moves < 0.5%), cap trade frequency at 31 trades/24h maximum. Forum-aware's 24 trades (+$232.17) and agentic's 30 trades (+$123.26) both profited, while momentum's 33 trades lost -$59.65.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.67, "sample_size": 146, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "8c8351d3886c": { "pattern_id": "8c8351d3886c", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Avoid momentum-following strategies in mixed/low-volatility markets. When daily moves are under 0.5%, momentum signals generate false entries that whipsaw. gptoss_momentum lost -$59.65 on 33 trades.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 33, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "059af7b4f5af": { "pattern_id": "059af7b4f5af", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Contrarian strategies underperform in mixed markets with no clear trend to fade. gptoss_contrarian's 16 trades lost -$38.04 when there was no dominant trend to reverse against.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 16, "confidence": 0.8200000000000001, "first_seen": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "4617540e2380": { "pattern_id": "4617540e2380", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Forum/social sentiment filtering provides edge in mixed markets by identifying which of the small moves have conviction behind them. gptoss_forum_aware's +$232.17 on 24 trades suggests sentiment signals correctly filtered noise.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.8, "sample_size": 24, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-08T20:07:33.303675+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "87f3b6d203a6": { "pattern_id": "87f3b6d203a6", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +2.4%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.85, "sample_size": 113, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "b10ce41e7710": { "pattern_id": "b10ce41e7710", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAILS when combined with regime misidentification. gptoss_skill_aware lost -$340.51 on 31 trades despite using validated sizing frameworks.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.1, "sample_size": 31, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "660c2ac9439e": { "pattern_id": "660c2ac9439e", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Self-reflective position management (recognizing overtrading and closing positions) enables profitability even when some entries are wrong-direction. journal_aware's +$55.48 vs skill_aware's -$340.51 at similar trade counts.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.75, "sample_size": 27, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "fd06e8f64070": { "pattern_id": "fd06e8f64070", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h maximum in bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. Momentum's 15 trades (-$25.04) vs skill_aware's 31 trades (-$340.51) shows frequency amplifies losses.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.7, "sample_size": 113, "confidence": 0.95, "first_seen": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true }, "131474e6b57f": { "pattern_id": "131474e6b57f", "pattern_type": "risk_rule", "description": "Contrarian LONG entries in bullish markets should profit, but contrarian agent lost -$22.72 on 6 trades, suggesting the contrarian strategy was actually shorting (fading the rally) rather than going long.", "conditions": {}, "success_rate": 0.3, "sample_size": 6, "confidence": 0.62, "first_seen": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "last_confirmed": "2026-03-09T20:08:51.724044+00:00", "times_seen": 1, "is_active": true } }