# Analysis: 2026-02 ## A. Methodology signals ### How he hunts supply-chain signals - **Multi-hop BOM mapping.** Core method is tracing the full supply chain from raw feedstock to hyperscaler ASIC: "AXTI -> IQE -> LITE -> Hyperscaler ASICs... You might discover something early that markets haven't priced in." He explicitly notes: "If you ask an AI: 'Is AXT or IQE part of Google TPU supply chains' — It will say no due to obscured multi-hop connections." (2026-02-25) - **Derivative / operational indicators ahead of financials.** Uses non-financial data to front-run earnings: "7n indium nonstandard on SMM reaching ATHs" as a proxy for $AXTI price-hike probability; USDC circulating supply for $CRCL re-rating; GPU availability data from 3Fourteen Research for Neocloud. (2026-02-10, 2026-02-06, 2026-02-26) - **Government/DoD funding as conviction builder.** Watches executive orders, DoD blacklists (YMTC/CXMT on 1260H), US administration seizing InP supply chains, Japan $550B investment breakdown, OpenAI memo to Congress. (2026-02-03, 2026-02-07, 2026-02-15) - **BOM percentage analysis on hyperscaler ASICs.** "$LITE is ~8–12% of Google TPU BOM value." Uses BOM concentration to rank expected revenue impact. (2026-02-11) - **Hyperscaler capex as primary leading indicator.** "$GOOGL reported earnings and their CapEX spend was enormous. $175–$185 Billion vs. $120 Billion. This is bullish for AI buildout. Follow the money flow down to…" (2026-02-04). Treats hyperscaler capex as the master signal: "The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections." (2026-02-26) - **Customer concentration / sole-source monopoly.** Seeks situations where a supplier is sole or near-sole source: "AXT is vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level… benefiting both times as a bottleneck of two different layers." "Two (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time." (2026-02-10) - **Inventory / lead-time signals.** "Hyperscalers start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026." (2026-02-03). Phison CEO interview: "3-Year Prepayment Cash Flow" — memory foundries demanding 3 years of prepayments. (2026-02-16) - **Identifying who gets hurt vs. who benefits from export controls.** China export controls hurt Sumitomo (can't get upstream feedstock) but benefit $AXTI (vertically integrated). (2026-02-03, 2026-02-10) ### How he forms conviction - **Cross-checks from multiple data sources:** analyst reports (Morgan Stanley, Macquarie, Bernstein, HSBC), industry body reports (LightCounting, Semivision), China commodity data (SMM), insider executive interviews (Phison CEO, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Jensen Huang, Andy Jassy, Sam Altman, Satya Nadella, Elon Musk), earnings calls, government filings. - **Validates theses via price-action confirmation:** six weeks after initial $AXTI post, lists all catalysts that played out as expected: export ban on competitors, 7N indium ATH, Northland $100M raise, $LITE blowout, $GOOGL capex. (2026-02-07) - **Sum-of-parts valuation for complex companies.** $NBIS: "You're basically holding 5 companies, each growing triple digits Y/Y." Clickhouse raising at $15B; Avride sum-of-parts. (2026-02-10, 2026-02-13) - **Peer/comparables benchmarking.** LandMark Optoelectronics ($3.8B MC, 27–30 reactors) vs. $IQE ($150M MC, 100+ reactors) to argue $IQE is deeply undervalued if restructured. (2026-02-26, 2026-02-27) ### How he talks about risk, position sizing, timing - **Explicit sizing guidance:** "This is a very small weighting in my portfolio" for moonshots like $RPI, $IQE, $AEVA. "Don't have high concentration in small caps like $AXTI." Uses ~1.25–1.5x margin overall. - **Recurring volatility warning:** "Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it's important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade." (2026-02-07). "$AXTI moves 20% a day which is why I say it's really important to build conviction yourself before you enter a trade + size positions correctly." - **Staged entry on dips:** Bought $NBIS at ~$80, $NBIS again at ~$70–$92 range; Bitcoin at $73K then leveraged calls at $62K. - **Portfolio-hedge via sector rotation** rather than puts: "Iran/US tensions → $CVX / $XLE and likely defense goes up, trim other weightings." Pre-positioned in oil/defense well before Iran strikes; rotated those profits into high-beta selloffs. (2026-02-20, 2026-02-28) - **Risk-reward asymmetry framing:** "$IQE — £41M debt feels like pennies to hyperscalers." "Even if they miss projections by 40%, so I'm in for the ride." (2026-02-27, 2026-02-28) - **Timing framework:** distinguishes "early positioning" (2 years before photonics ramp 2028) vs. "momentum confirming" (earnings confirms), vs. "late crowded" ($LITE already frontrun short-term but cheap 2 years out). "Memory demand is structural now hitting balance sheets; photonics is markets frontrunning 2028." (2026-02-24) ### Recurring mental models and catchphrases - **"Did you listen anon?"** — Signature call-back to original thesis post after price confirms. Used for $AXTI (multiple times), $EWY. (2026-02-20, 2026-02-25) - **"Who is the real bottleneck?"** — Always traces past the obvious name (NVDA, LITE) to find the hidden chokepoint upstream (AXTI, IQE). - **"Follow the money flow down to…"** — Standard framing for hyperscaler capex analysis. (2026-02-04, 2026-02-06) - **"Memory supercycle"** / **"photonics ramp"** — Primary thematic vocabulary. Explicitly analogizes photonics build-out in 2026–2027 to memory in 2025. - **"Made in America" premium** — Applied to $INTC vs. $TSM, $MU vs. SK Hynix, and $AAOI (Texas fab) vs. $LITE/$COHR (Asian assembly). Expects regulatory/geopolitical premium for domestic suppliers. - **Vega expansion arbitrage** — Finds indexes/ETFs where MMs price IV on stale 10-year historical averages and will reprice when new structural volatility emerges ($EWY). "Level 5: making market makers cry after consistently finding mispricing." (2026-02-20) - **Time-zone lag arbitrage** — Uses $EWY US futures vs. SK Hynix EU (Frankfurt) lag to trade statistical convergence. (2026-02-22) - **"Balance sheet > macro"** — Core dismissal of macro bears; uses it for SK Hynix, $SNDK, others. (2026-02-02) - **"AI is not disrupting X"** — Looks for names sold off in the AI-disruption bucket that don't actually face disruption (network effects: $RDDT, $NFLX, $SPOT). Rates on a 1–10 disruption risk scale. (2026-02-27) --- ## B. Per-ticker theses ### $AXTI — InP substrate / photonics feedstock (upstream materials) - **Stance:** Strong bull; highest-conviction single name in February. "AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play." - **Thesis:** AXTI controls two sequential chokepoints in the photonics supply chain: (1) 7N high-purity indium feedstock refining (upstream), and (2) InP substrate wafer manufacturing. As hyperscalers accelerate CPO/photonics buildout (driven by Google's $175–185B capex), the InP supply chain will hit shortage H2 2026. AXTI is vertically integrated where Sumitomo is not (Sumitomo relies on Chinese feedstock now export-controlled). Price hikes modeled on memory companies ($SNDK, $MU) pattern — AXTI is the "Big Two" or possibly "Big One" analog for photonics substrates. - **Evidence/catalysts cited:** - 2026-01 (prior month): Original thesis posted at ~$700M MC / ~$12–13/share. - 2026-02-03: "6 weeks since initial post, now up 60%... China export control banned precursors to competitors; 7N InP prices hit all-time highs week after week; raised $100M from Northland to double capacity; $LITE blows out earnings." - 2026-02-07: Trump executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign-owned companies in the US. - 2026-02-10: "7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months." SMM data cited as derivative metric for price-hike probability. - 2026-02-09: "$AXTI up 63.29% in 1 week to new yearly highs. What a crazy photonics rally off $GOOGL earnings." - 2026-02-20: "Did you listen anon?" — stock up triple digits from original thesis. (363K+ views) - 2026-02-24: "Up 233% on one of my $AXTI positions." - 2026-02-25: "Up 310% on my $AXTI position in 2 months." - 2026-02-25: MC reached $1.9–2.1B, up from $700M at thesis inception. - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - Entry: ~$700M MC (~$12–13/share, per retrospective comments), late December 2025 / January 2026. - 2026-02-07: "Took positions into $AXTI." Notes 60% gain in 6 weeks. - 2026-02-09: Up 63% in one week. - 2026-02-22 (forward-looking): "2027–2028 is where the real fun should begin with $AXTI + possible memory-style price hikes. This is just early DD before the photonics ramp." - 2026-02-24: Cost-averaged up with shares at ~$2.1B MC. - **Stance changes:** None — conviction increased every week. Added to position throughout February. --- ### $AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics; transceiver manufacturer ("Made in America") - **Stance:** Turned to very high-conviction bull late February after blowout earnings (2026-02-27). Calls it "the next $SNDK" and "early $ALAB / $CRDO." - **Thesis:** Only truly domestic (Sugarland, Texas fab) US-assembled 800G and 1.6T optical transceiver manufacturer. Hyperscalers (likely Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are buying every unit AAOI can produce ("they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make"). Gets a "Made in America" geopolitical premium over $COHR (Malaysia/Vietnam assembly), $LITE ($FN Thailand), Innolight/Eoptolink (China). Projections leapfrog $LITE's 2026 revenue from a base 10× smaller. - **Evidence/catalysts (dated):** - 2026-02-27: Earnings. Management guidance: monthly transceiver revenue target of $378M by mid-2027 = ~$4.35B ARR — 900%+ Y/Y growth. 3 hyperscale customers, completely sold out. "They would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6T." Gross margins ~40%. - 2026-02-27: $250M ATM overhang noted as minor drag vs. projections. - 2026-02-27: Short interest at 16% — viewed as added fuel to rally. - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - First buy: "high 20s, low 30s" (mentioned retrospectively 2026-02-28). - 2026-02-27: "Tripling my $AAOI position size after earnings." - 2026-02-27 (Bull case): "After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B–$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections." - 2026-02-28: "Making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions." "A nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B [$LITE] valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute." - Forward P/E modeled: ~6.4x on 2027 NI; ~3.0x with +30% ASP price hike. - **Stance changes:** Minimal earlier-month coverage. Post-earnings became a core position and one of the top two photonics picks (alongside $AXTI). --- ### $SNDK (SanDisk/Western Digital NAND) — Memory; NAND/SSD - **Stance:** Extreme bull throughout February. Benchmarks other stocks against it; calls retail shorts "regarded." - **Thesis:** NAND supercycle driven by AI inference ("SSD per Vera Rubin inference server") and enterprise storage demand. Management guided 2026 as "highest revenue year in company's history." Forward P/E 2026 ~14.6x; 2027 ~6.3x. "After a 16% increase, the forward 2027 P/E is still single digits." (2026-02-02). Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan: "Memory is the biggest constraint for AI right now... no relief until at least 2028." (2026-02-03). Phison CEO: "Chinese supply glut thesis is dead." - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-02: 109.36% YTD; $SNDK "literally doesn't know what a red day means." - 2026-02-03: "Stop shorting $SNDK. Intel CEO says memory is biggest constraint, no relief until 2028." - 2026-02-13: Only green stock on a day when everything else fell 5–20%. - 2026-02-16: Phison CEO interview supports "toll collector" thesis; dismisses Chinese threat. - 2026-02-25: "Citron shorts on Sandisk will just add fuel to the rally." - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - Held throughout February as core position (~5% of disclosed portfolio). - No explicit price targets provided. - **Stance changes:** None. Consistent extreme bull. Uses $SNDK YTD performance as personal benchmark. --- ### $MU (Micron Technology) — Memory; DRAM/HBM - **Stance:** Strong bull. Calls it "safest" memory play. "Forward P/E ~10.4x (2026), possibly 6.9–7.3x with NAND price increases." (2026-02-02) - **Thesis:** Part of the memory supercycle trio (Samsung, SK Hynix, MU). MU benefits most from HBM ramp; setting up $9.6B HBM plant in Hiroshima (Japan). Projected 2025 operating income $10.8B → 2026 $46.5B → 2027 ~$63.5B. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-02: "Micron Proposed A 115–125% QoQ Increase for server DRAM" per dramexchange. - 2026-02-03: CXMT/YMTC threat dismissed: "Close to 0 material impact — they're blacklisted, domestic only." - 2026-02-16: Phison CEO "toll collector" framing includes MU. - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - Held throughout (~10% of disclosed portfolio). No specific entry/exit dates in February. - **Stance changes:** None. --- ### Samsung Electronics / SK Hynix — Korean memory; HBM/DRAM - **Stance:** Extreme bull; "most undervalued" (SK Hynix) and "fastest growth" ($SNDK), "safest" (Samsung). Calls Korean memory the defining trade of the year. - **Thesis:** Memory supercycle will make Samsung and SK Hynix the two most profitable companies in the world by 2027, surpassing Apple and Alphabet. Morgan Stanley projections: SK Hynix 2026 ~$124B, 2027 ~$161B operating income; Samsung 2026 ~$170B, 2027 ~$226.7B. Macquarie (more bullish): SK Hynix 2027 ~$312.8B. Forward P/E 2027 Samsung 3.7x, SK Hynix 2.2x (Macquarie). Uses $EWY and $FLKR as proxies. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-01: Morgan Stanley report cited — Samsung net profit ~$163B, SK Hynix ~$120.9B (2027 est.). - 2026-02-02: Memory company overview post with forward P/E table from MS/Bernstein/HSBC. (776 ♥, 271K views) - 2026-02-09: "Japan's Nikkei 225 skyrockets over 5%... Korea's KOSPI up 4.2% with SK Hynix up 5.4%." - 2026-02-13: "These numbers are staggering: Samsung/SK Hynix projected most profitable companies by 2027." (1,731 ♥, 331K views) - 2026-02-25: Macquarie projections: Samsung FY2027 ~$333.7B, SK Hynix FY2027 ~$312.8B operating income. (844 ♥, 287K views) - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - 10% Samsung + 10% SK Hynix in disclosed portfolio (2026-02-07). - $EWY call options (2028 leaps) initiated when IV was 32%; IV expanded to 44–47% during February (confirmed profitable 2026-02-17 to 2026-02-23). - YTD return disclosed 2026-02-20 as top contributor to 237% YTD. - **Stance changes:** None. Conviction increased. Added more $EWY leaps at 47% IV on 2026-02-23. --- ### $EWY — iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (options play on Samsung/SK Hynix) - **Stance:** High-conviction volatility arbitrage + directional long. - **Thesis:** MMs priced 2028 leap IV at historical 10-year average of ~32% (Korean index was flat for a decade). Actual realized volatility is 65–70%+ because $EWY is effectively 50%+ Samsung/SK Hynix through direct and pass-through structures (SK Square = 90% NAV is SK Hynix equity; multiple Samsung subsidiaries hold Samsung Electronics as NAV). Upcoming 10x leveraged Samsung/SK Hynix DeFi perps and 2x leveraged single-stock Korean ETFs will add further unrealized volatility not priced in. "Your portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion alone." (2026-02-20) - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-13: Original thesis post. IV = 32%. (688 ♥, 651K views — highest single-post engagement in February) - 2026-02-17: "$EWY IV went from 32% → 42% in 5 days on 2 year leaps. Would be a free ~30%+ profit off IV/vega expansion alone." - 2026-02-20: "Index down -2.46%. The entire option chain green +13–20%." (335 ♥) - 2026-02-20: "Probably up there with my most legendary calls to date? Portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion alone. IV: 32% → 44.7%." (796 ♥, 337K views) - 2026-02-22: Explains Korean EWY → SK Hynix EU (Frankfurt HY9H) time-lag arbitrage separately. (552 ♥) - 2026-02-23: "EWY SK index down. Entire long term option chain up" — textbook vega expansion demonstration. (344 ♥) - 2026-02-23: Calls it "S-tier research." (1,651 ♥, 5.8M views — highest-viewed tweet in the month) - 2026-02-26: IV at ~45%. Still adding: "Actually just bought more leaps at 47% IV today since I expect it to expand further to ~55% long term." - **Calls/targets:** - Target: IV → 55–65%+ (from ~32% at entry). At 65% IV, option values "may double again from vega expansion alone." - Price direction: Calls KOSPI to likely "double" from current levels as SK Hynix / Samsung re-rate toward their projected profitability. - Position held through February; holding into 2027/2028. --- ### $XLU — Utilities Select Sector SPDR (OTM 2-year leaps) - **Stance:** Strong bull; calls it "once-in-a-generation long due to AI." Initiated during February. - **Thesis:** Two simultaneous tailwinds never before combined: (1) AI inference/training creating GW-scale power demand structurally different from any prior period; (2) rate cuts reducing utility debt burden and expanding multiples. MMs priced $XLU leap IV at 14–16% based on historical averages (sector returned 79.73% total since year 2000 — "slowest moving sector in the world"). OTM 2028 leaps offer 72x notional leverage at ~60 cents premium. CEOs of NVIDIA, Tesla/xAI, OpenAI, Amazon, and Microsoft all publicly confirmed power/grid is the #1 bottleneck for US AI. OpenAI letter to Congress: "China added 429 GW of new power capacity in 2024." - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-15: OpenAI memo to Congress warning on power. (499 ♥) - 2026-02-19: Original thesis post — "Trade Idea: Long OTM $XLU leaps (2 years, Dec 2027/Jan 2028)." (666 ♥, 340K views) - 2026-02-21: Detailed quantitative macro model post: models AI data center power usage 2024→2028 (190 TWh → 980 TWh, +415%); hyperscaler capex $220B 2024 → $1.2T 2028 (+445%); PJM capacity prices from $28.92/MW-day 2024 → $329.17/MW-day 2026/27. "If I had to turn $100K → $1M in 1 year, it would be $XLU OTM 2 year leaps." (1,691 ♥, 562K views — second-highest viewed tweet) - 2026-02-21: Elon Musk quote cited: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced AI hardware sitting dark because there's not enough electricity." (382 ♥) - 2026-02-22: CEO quotes compilation from Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Andy Jassy, Satya Nadella, Elon Musk all saying power is the #1 bottleneck. (713 ♥) - 2026-02-25: "$XLU 2.56% in a week." "Some $XLU strikes are up 80–150% in a week since I called it out." (684 ♥) - 2026-02-27: "Some $XLU strikes are up 80–150% in a week." Option values confirmed up triple digits. - **Calls/targets:** - Entry: IV ~14–16% on OTM 2-year (Dec 2027 / Jan 2028) leaps. - Warning: "If IV is elevated above 17.5%, probably stay away." - Directional target: "Potential ~40% for XLU (1,000%+ OTM)" — implies stock up ~40% while OTM calls up 10x. - Holding through 2027/2028. --- ### $NBIS (Nebius Group) — AI neocloud / GPU cloud infrastructure - **Stance:** High-conviction long with patience thesis ("silent buildout phase"). Core holding at ~10% of disclosed portfolio. - **Thesis:** Holding "5 companies each growing triple digits Y/Y": AI cloud (Nebius Core), Clickhouse (database, raised at $15B valuation), Avride (autonomous vehicles, "Uber not returning to own robotaxis"), Toloka (data labeling), other subsidiaries. $5B capex pipeline converting to $7–9B ARR by year-end 2026 (700%+ Y/Y). Major GPU buildout happening now; recognized revenue will accelerate H2 2026 → Q1 2027. ATM (25M shares) overhang is negative short-term, but hoped to be near completion. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-06: GPU availability dropped across cloud platforms (3Fourteen Research data), older GPUs rising in price (H100 +29%, A100 +23%). "Every tailwind just hit at once for Neoclouds." (307 ♥, 53K views) - 2026-02-06: Jensen Huang: "GPUs sold six years ago are increasing in price." GPU depreciation fear eased. - 2026-02-10: "It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination" (after $IREN reported no new hyperscaler deals). - 2026-02-13: "$400 bull-case PT Q4 earnings given they hit $8B ARR. Clickhouse + Avride carries sum-of-parts." - 2026-02-19: "NBIS $NBIS back up 27% in a week. Positive sentiment seems to be returning." - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - Bought heavily at ~$70–80 range during major selloff (2026-02-04 referenced). "Portfolio margined into $NBIS on the major selloff to $70." - Bull-case PT: "$400 by Q4 earnings if they hit $8B ARR." (2026-02-13) - Acknowledges most ramp happens H2 2026 to Q1 2027; patient hold. - **Stance changes:** Maintained conviction despite ATM dilution concern. No trim in February. --- ### $LITE (Lumentum) — Optical transceivers; photonics - **Stance:** Bull, but notes short-term overextension. "Runner-up" to $AXTI in photonics hierarchy. - **Thesis:** $LITE is ~8–12% of Google TPU BOM. As Google capex ($175–185B) scales up, LITE benefits directly. Blowout earnings confirmed. Part of the "Elite Four" photonics plays: LITE ($50B, high BOM), AXTI (materials), COHR, AAOI. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-03: "After China's most recent export controls, $LITE / $COHR are using inventory (maybe 1 year)." Hyperscaler demand will exhaust it. - 2026-02-04: "$LITE and $COHR are large beneficiaries from [Google capex]." - 2026-02-11: "LITE +31.68% in 1 week" (top of bottleneck ETF list). - 2026-02-27: Notes AAOI's 2027 projections "literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026" on top-line revenue. - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - Held as ~5% of disclosed portfolio throughout February. - 2026-02-22: "LITE is very undervalued if you fast forward 2 years. But as of now, it's probably a tad overextended and markets have done a bit too much frontrunning imo." - 2026-02-24: Ranked #2 photonics pick after $AXTI. "Up about 70% in 1 month." - **Stance changes:** Still long but trimming mentally; notes short-term overextension post-Google capex rally. --- ### $COHR (Coherent) — Photonics / optical components - **Stance:** Bull. #3 in photonics hierarchy after $AXTI, $LITE. - **Thesis:** Large part of the photonics supply chain. Benefits from hyperscaler capex (LITE, COHR cited together frequently). Vertically integrated for some epiwafer capacity. Japanese $550B investment plan includes COHR for diamond substrates in AI chips (synthetic diamond for heat sinks). - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-07: Japan $550B investment — "COHR — diamond substrates into optical (likely partner). They launched bondable diamonds in Jan 2026." - 2026-02-12: +23.5% in one week on bottleneck ETF list. - 2026-02-27: Part of "Elite Four" photonics. - **Calls/targets:** ~2.5% of disclosed portfolio. No specific price targets. --- ### $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics Inc.) — [Covered in depth above under separate entry] --- ### $IQE (IQE plc, London Stock Exchange) — Compound semiconductor epiwafer foundry - **Stance:** High-risk speculative bull; "binary" outcome. Largest photonics moonshot post-$AXTI. - **Thesis:** Largest independent outsourced compound semiconductor epitaxial foundry globally by reactor count (100+ MOCVD/MBE systems vs. LandMark's 27–30). Known $LITE supplier. If restructuring succeeds (sell Taiwan RF GaAs legacy business for £100–150M, clear £45M gross debt), company can pivot 100+ reactors to InP epiwafer production for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers — a critical photonics bottleneck. LandMark Optoelectronics is comparable at ~$3.8B MC; IQE at ~$150–175M MC. Supply chain logic: $AXTI → $IQE → $LITE → Google/Amazon/Microsoft TPUs/ASICs. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-25: "Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains. $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers." Detailed supply chain map. (909 ♥, 915K views) - 2026-02-26: Deep-dive post: 100+ MOCVD reactors vs. LandMark 27–30; £45M gross debt as "pennies to hyperscalers." Lazard-advised strategic review underway. (597 ♥, 67K views) - 2026-02-27: Full DD post: restructuring optionality, geopolitical angle (Western-only supply chain), Bitcoin miner pivot analogy. "If 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, equity could rerate materially." (714 ♥, 119K views) - 2026-02-28: "$AAOI earnings signals extreme demand for MBE/MOCVD reactors. $IQE is sitting on an absolute gold mine." (819 ♥, 448K views) - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - 2026-02-26: "If I had to pick a 10x return stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE." (1,062 ♥, 196K views) - Personal position taken: "I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround." - Extreme risk acknowledged: "Downside is extreme dilution" / "extremely high risk, binary outcome." - Risks: Taiwan business sale might only net £50–60M in distressed scenario; possible failure to restructure → dilution to 0. --- ### $RPI (Raspberry Pi plc, LSE) — AI agent hardware ("OpenClaw play") - **Stance:** New bull thesis initiated 2026-02-16. Small position. Reuters, Bloomberg, Guardian, FT cited thesis. - **Thesis:** Raspberry Pi's TAM expanded overnight from education (1–2 boards per buyer) to AI agent orchestration hardware. OpenClaw, PicoClaw, NanoClaw variants use Raspberry Pi as cheap ($20–200), mass-producible, bare-metal hardware for deploying AI agent swarms. Platforms detect VMs/hypervisor fingerprinting; bare-metal Pis bypass detection. Revenue should beat 14–17% analyst consensus growth to "48–55% if hoarding continues." Mac Mini hoarding is similar catalyst but immaterial to $3.7T Apple; very material to $550M Raspberry Pi. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-16: Initial thesis post at ~$542M MC. (951 ♥, 933K views — third-highest viewed tweet) - 2026-02-17: +19.34% day-1, then +29% day-2. CEO Eben Upton bought stock 5 times since late January (Bloomberg). - 2026-02-17: "Reuters, Bloomberg, Economic Times, and now The Guardian" cited thesis. (408 ♥, 146K views) - 2026-02-18: Bloomberg fund manager Adam Montanaro: "Thematically the evolution of a Raspberry Pi from hobbyist board into a core piece of AI infrastructure is correct." (536 ♥, 163K views) - 2026-02-21: FT and Telegraph label it "meme stock" — he refutes forcefully, arguing it's fundamental revenue thesis. - 2026-02-24: "The media labeled 'Meme Stock' $RPI has held its gains, and is up 46.12% this month." (174 ♥) - **Calls/targets/entries-exits:** - Bought on LSE, "very small weighting in portfolio." Fees were "a few hundred euros." - Bear case: If OpenClaw demand is a short-term cycle and doesn't persist. - Held through end of February. - **Stance changes:** Initiated and maintained conviction. Defended thesis against media framing. --- ### $CRCL (Circle Internet) — Stablecoin issuer (USDC) - **Stance:** Strong re-buy at $54 (2026-02-03); "bearish-neutral short term, very bullish long term." Primary risk: Clarity Act / Genius Act stablecoin provisions. - **Thesis:** USDC circulating supply stable at $70B+ despite stock selloff (stock down ~75% from ATH of $150–200 → $54). Valuation reset to $12B MC justified by USDC volume. At $54: buying the stablecoin business for nearly free. Long-term bullish if stablecoin adoption continues. Risk: Clarity Act banning third-party yields on stablecoins would drain liquidity and hurt Circle's revenue from treasury interest. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-03: "I really, really like $CRCL at $54." USDC still $70B+. (1,045 ♥, 953K views) - 2026-02-03: $4B outflow from $73B → $69B USDC, "largely priced in." - 2026-02-25: "$CRCL up 20% today." (601 ♥, 101K views) - 2026-02-26: "$CRCL is now back up 53% in 3 weeks. $54 was the best chance to buy." (717 ♥, 88K views) - **Calls/targets:** - Buy level: $54 / $12B MC. - Bear case: Clarity Act passes with yield-banning provisions → significant downside. - Recovery: 53% gain by late February confirmed. Still held. - **Stance changes:** Went from short-term bearish-neutral to more constructive as USDC supply held and stock recovered. --- ### $RDDT (Reddit) — Social media / network effect - **Stance:** Strong buy at $139 (2026-02-09); maintained conviction throughout February. - **Thesis:** Sold off 41–44% YTD on AI disruption narrative but actually not disrupted — network effect moat. Q4 2025: revenue $726M (+70% Y/Y), net income $252M (~35% margin), cash $2.5B, 0 debt. Forward P/E ~27–30x vs. Walmart at 46x. "Reddit is a money printer at $141." "You can't vibecode the network effect." Data licensing (LLMs) is only 5% of revenue — a non-factor. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-09: Q4 ER. "Blowout Q4 earnings but likely short-term option chain + liquidity influencing price." Long $RDDT at $139. (554 ♥, 116K views) - 2026-02-10: "+5.83% Day 1 of holding $RDDT." - 2026-02-11: "Growing 70% Y/Y, 91.5% gross margin, ~27–30 forward P/E." (288 ♥, 55K views) - 2026-02-27: "AI is Disrupting Software but Not Really" bucket; $RDDT rated 10/10 not-disrupted. (808 ♥, 103K views) - **Calls/targets:** - Buy at $139–141. - No explicit price target given; implies significant undervaluation at ~27x P/E for 70% grower with 91% margins. - **Stance changes:** Initiated new position February 9; consistent bull through month end. --- ### $NVDA (NVIDIA) — AI accelerators / training GPUs - **Stance:** Structurally bullish but views earnings as "lagging indicator." Not a featured single-name long in February. - **Thesis:** Core to AI buildout but the real signal is hyperscaler capex, not NVDA earnings themselves. "The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections." Dropping 4.82% post-earnings (2026-02-26) seen as healthy correction, not a problem. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-26: NVDA blows away expectations at $78B revenue vs. $72B estimated, but stock drops 4.82%. Calls it "realized confirmation that the AI trade is likely to accelerate." - **Calls:** No direct NVDA position mentioned. Treats as "center of everything" but prefers to own the supply chain bottlenecks upstream. --- ### $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) — Foundry; advanced packaging - **Stance:** Core bull. "You cannot build God without TSM." Part of every AI infrastructure thesis. - **Evidence:** 2026-02-07 bottleneck framework: "Base Die: $TSM, Samsung (internal)." Operating income projections: 2025 ~$62.2B → 2026 ~$86.3B → 2027 ~$103–105B. In disclosed portfolio at ~5%. (2026-02-07) --- ### $SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology) — NAND flash controllers (duopoly with Phison) - **Stance:** New bull; initiated position 2026-02-18. - **Thesis:** Duopoly with Phison for merchant SSD controllers. Supplies Samsung, SK Hynix, MU, WDC, Kioxia, YMTC. TAM expansion: shipped to "Leading AI GPU maker" (likely NVDA) for enterprise boot drives. Q4 2025: $278.5M revenue (+46% YoY, +15% QoQ), gross margins ~49.2%, net income +107% YoY. Guided 2026 as "highest revenue year in company's history." Q1 2026 guidance: $292–306M (+76–84% YoY). Debt-free, $277M net cash. "A profitable, debt-free company with ~50% gross margins profiting off NAND volume demand, while expanding its TAM." - **Calls/targets:** - Initiated at ~$4.56B MC, "under 20x forward earnings." - "Upside seems compelling given TAM expansion and the memory supercycle." - Rated as "later to the game" vs. $SNDK/Samsung but compelling. (2026-02-18) --- ### $AEHR (Aehr Test Systems) — Semiconductor burn-in/test equipment - **Stance:** Speculative long; "moonshot pick." - **Thesis:** "Passed from R&D to mass production." $14M order for burn-in systems (2026-02-11). Revenue catalysts: potential hyperscaler use for HBM DRAM burn-in, Sonoma product for packaged chips. Guidance H2 2026: $60–80M in new bookings. Context: $TER ($51B), Advantest (~$125B) show ceiling for test equipment companies. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-11: "$AEHR up 30%+ today on hyperscaler orders." - 2026-02-26: Full thesis post. (605 ♥, 71K views) - **Calls:** Small position; no specific price target. --- ### $HOOD (Robinhood) — FinTech brokerage - **Stance:** Turned neutral/cautious after February earnings. - **Thesis prior:** One of the earlier fintech bulls (bought in $10s per prior corpus). - **Stance change (2026-02-11):** "Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings. Revenue deceleration to 27% Y/Y and forward 35 P/E estimates balloon to 45–50+ at $80B MC. Growth was partially bought (Bitstamp acquisition), not organic." - **Evidence:** Q4 ER showed revenue deceleration; crypto market not recovering yet. - **Path to recovery:** International stock expansion (IBKR eating inflows for foreign equities), blockchain token launch. --- ### $SNAP (Snap Inc.) — Social media - **Stance:** Bear on management's financial engineering; structurally interesting but investability impaired. - **Thesis:** "$2.5B in stock-based compensation TTM (running at ~$1B/year)" while going into $3.5B+ long-term debt at 6.875% interest to fund buybacks. "If $SNAP paid employees in cash, FCF for Q4 would be -$51M." Calls it "Victoria Secret model's private piggy bank." Despite Perplexity deal and memory monetization opportunities, SBC structure makes the company uninvestable. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-02: Pre-earnings deep-dive flagging SBC issue. (977 ♥, 241K views) - 2026-02-04: Q4 ER: revenue $1.716B (+10%), FCF $206M, but $500M buyback "red flag." "If $SNAP paid employees in cash, FCF would actually be -$51M." - **Stance changes:** No buy. Watchlisting for Evan Spiegel to materially reduce SBC. --- ### $AEVA (Aeva Technologies) — 4D LiDAR / FMCW sensing - **Stance:** Speculative long, small position. "Venture bet." - **Thesis:** FMCW LiDAR provides deterministic velocity data (Doppler) vs. ToF rivals' probabilistic approach — critical difference for "World Models" in physical AI (robots, humanoids). Positioning as midstream bottleneck for "4D AI" trend post-Jensen Huang's conference. Also made a CPO breakthrough using same FMCW technology. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-09: "Took positions into $AEVA." Entry ~$14.1/share. - 2026-02-09: Initial thesis post + discussion of World Models + FMCW advantages. (345 ♥, 79K views) - **Calls:** "Speculative moonshot," small position. Entry ~$14.10. No price target. --- ### $INFQ (Infleqtion) — Quantum computing (neutral-atom) - **Stance:** Small speculative long; first quantum computing position taken. - **Thesis:** First public pure-play neutral-atom quantum computing. Revenue-generating quantum sensing division (NASA and US military contracts). Already past "science project" stage unlike $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-18: Initiated position. "$INFQ as exposure to quantum computing." (702 ♥, 151K views) - **Calls:** Small percentage. "Erring on the side of caution on Quantum Computing names." --- ### $VPG (Vishay Precision Group) — Precision sensors / foil technology (robotics Optimus play) - **Stance:** Long (held); conviction high for high-end versions, some uncertainty on mass-production versions. - **Thesis:** ~$850/robot revenue for precision sensors in Tesla Optimus humanoids. "Hand" is most IP-sensitive part — likely uses high-precision Western sensors. Mass-production Chinese supply chains for body (~$20K consumer-grade Optimus) may not use $VPG, but industrial/high-precision versions likely do. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-02: "$VPG the hard carry, +23% 5D." (285 ♥, 97K views) - 2026-02-05: Reports of Chinese robotics suppliers (Zhejiang Huazheng, Ningbo TuoFu, Everwin) for mass production cited as risk. - 2026-02-07: Elon: "Tesla designed custom actuators, gears, sensors. There is no supply chain for this." — hand is most complex, "more degrees of freedom." - 2026-02-11: Q4 ER: Strategic Growth Initiatives (robots) $37.8M orders vs. $30M target — "crushed this projection by nearly $8 million." $1M order in January 2026 alone (up from $3.6M total through October). - **Calls:** Held throughout; cost averaging mentioned. "Not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat." --- ### $ETOR (eToro) — Israeli FinTech brokerage - **Stance:** Deep value bull; frustrated at market's discount to Israeli companies. - **Thesis:** "$2.1B MC. Net cash $1.2B, no debt. Forward EV/EBITDA ~2.6x vs. peers at 10–15x." AUM growing 76%+ Y/Y. "In a couple years, eToro will have more cash than their marketcap." Markets heavily discount Israeli-linked companies. - **Evidence/catalysts:** - 2026-02-06: "$ETOR has gotta be one of the most undervalued companies on NASDAQ." (337 ♥, 63K views) - 2026-02-06: "Bought into $ETOR at $26 from $68" (referenced in broader crypto reset post). - 2026-02-25: Still holding; notes eToro earnings "barely recovered" despite good results. - **Calls:** 5% of disclosed portfolio. No specific target; thesis remains buy-and-hold. --- ## C. Thematic threads - **Memory supercycle (HBM/NAND):** Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU, $SNDK, $SIMO — structural shortage with no relief until 2028 (confirmed by Intel CEO). Chinese challengers (CXMT, YMTC) are DoD-blacklisted and absorbed domestically — no material impact on Western supply chains. Price hikes structural, not cyclical. Analog: memory is the new "oil" for AI. - **Photonics ramp (CPO/InP):** $AXTI → $IQE → $LITE / $AAOI → hyperscaler ASICs. This is the "next memory supercycle" for 2026–2028. Key bottleneck: InP substrates (AXTI, Sumitomo) and InP epiwafers (IQE, LandMark). Chinese export controls accelerate AXTI's moat. $AAOI earnings (2026-02-27) as inflection confirmation for the entire photonics chain. - **Power/grid bottleneck ($XLU):** All major US AI CEOs on record that power is the #1 US bottleneck. First time in history: rate cuts + AI inference ramp + grid modernization capex simultaneously. Historical IV of 14% for boring utilities now being re-priced. The "most boring sector in the world" becomes the most important geopolitical infrastructure. - **Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese equity re-rating:** Capital rotating into APAC as hyperscaler capex flows to the supply chains. Samsung/SK Hynix/EWY as the clearest expression; Nittobo (T-glass), Kioxia, Unimicron, Yamamura Glass as Japan/Taiwan hidden gems. "Pass-through structure" in $EWY means exposure to Samsung/SK Hynix is much higher than stated weights. - **Iran/geopolitical hedging:** War is bullish for non-US domestic markets (73% of armed conflicts since WWII showed positive US market returns 1 year after). Institutions already pre-positioned in oil ($CVX, $XLE up 22–26% YTD) and defense ($NOC, $LMT up 27–36% YTD) before strikes. Retail mistake: selling high-beta at lows to chase already-frontrun oil/defense at ATHs after the event. - **AI agent hardware (OpenClaw/RPI):** Raspberry Pi's TAM expanded from education to AI agent orchestration. Analog to NVIDIA GPU going from gaming to AI. The use case: bare-metal Pis deploy isolated, undetectable AI agent swarms for business applications (cloud TOS bans these on VMs). MacMini same theme but immaterial at $3.7T Apple. - **"Not-disrupted by AI" software bucket:** $RDDT, $NFLX, $NET, $SPOT, $SNAP — sold off in AI disruption bucket but actually protected by network effects and licensing moats. Opportunity in the overcorrection. - **Clarity Act / crypto liquidity risk:** Characterized as bank-lobbied "poison pill" that bans third-party stablecoin yields, forces dollar denomination on crypto, and hands all flow-of-funds control to chartered banks. Primary bear case for $CRCL, $COIN. "Bitcoin crashed because of Clarity Act mechanics, not because of weak fundamentals." --- ## D. Dated calls (track-record timeline) - **2026-02-01** — Fed chair Kevin Warsh thesis: AI/Semis ($NVDA, $MU) "extremely bullish"; metals (Silver, Gold) "extreme bearish"; Crypto ($BTC, $CRCL) "paradoxically bullish"; Small-Caps ($RUT) "bullish"; Japan/Korea "resilient." - **2026-02-01–02** — Silver crash 28–33% intraday. Called "short-term liquidity drain (24–48 hour flush)" driven by CME margin hike mechanics, not fundamental policy change. Expected green V-recovery. (Confirmed by subsequent market recovery.) - **2026-02-02** — $SNDK forward 2027 P/E ~6.3x even after +109% YTD. Memory supercycle still early. "AI demand + price hikes looks like the new structural norm." - **2026-02-03** — $CRCL at $54 / $12B MC. "I really, really like $CRCL at $54." Operational signal: USDC supply $70B+ still intact. (Confirmed: CRCL +53% by 2026-02-26) - **2026-02-03** — Dismissed CXMT/YMTC as "close to 0 material impact" on Western memory trade. Both DoD-blacklisted. Called Nikkei Asia piece "sensational hit piece." (Phison CEO confirmed thesis 2026-02-16) - **2026-02-04** — $GOOGL capex $175–185B (vs. prior $120B). Called it "bullish for AI buildout" and identified downstream winners: $AVGO/$TSM (design/foundry), Samsung/Sk Hynix/$MU/$SNDK (memory), $ANET/$LITE/$COHR/$VRT (network/photonics/energy). (Confirmed by subsequent sector rallies) - **2026-02-06** — GPU availability dropping sharply (3Fourteen Research). Called as bullish signal for neoclouds $IREN, $NBIS, $CRWV. Jensen Huang confirmed "GPUs sold 6 years ago are increasing in price." - **2026-02-07** — $AXTI "6-week update" at ~$1.4B MC (from $700M). Cited all 5 confirming catalysts. Maintained bull for 2-year photonics ramp. - **2026-02-07** — Portfolio disclosure: 35% memory supercycle (Samsung 10%, SK Hynix 10%, $MU 10%, $SNDK 5%), 25% digital assets, 15% fintech/advertising, 15% datacenter, 10% semi, 10% photonics. - **2026-02-09** — $RDDT long at $139 after -41.96% YTD selloff. Thesis: 70% Y/Y revenue growth, 35% net income margins, 91% gross margins, ~27–30 forward P/E. "Not disrupted by AI." - **2026-02-09** — $AEVA long at ~$14.10. "4D AI" and World Models thesis. FMCW LiDAR deterministic velocity advantage. - **2026-02-09** — $CRDO at $95 "may have been one of the biggest dip-buying opportunities this year." Next day: +52.6% on preliminary earnings (200%+ YoY revenue growth, $406M guidance beat). - **2026-02-10** — $AXTI thesis update: 7N high-purity indium hit $1K+, parabolic on SMM. "Derivative metric I use to track $AXTI possible price hikes." - **2026-02-13** — $EWY IV arbitrage thesis initiated. Current IV 32% on 2028 leaps; argued should be 65–70%+ given Samsung/SK Hynix volatility and pass-through structures. (Confirmed: IV 32% → 44–47% in one week; option chain up 13–20% with index down -2.46%) - **2026-02-15** — OpenAI memo warning Congress on power. Identified $XLU, $VRT, $ETN, $CEG, $VST, $TLN, $NEE, $IREN, $NBIS, $WULF, $CIFR as beneficiaries. - **2026-02-16** — $SIMO position initiated. Q4 2025 blowout; guided 2026 as highest revenue year ever. "Backdoor play for memory" with $NVDA TAM expansion. - **2026-02-16** — $RPI (Raspberry Pi) thesis initiated. "Fun Trade Idea: Long $RPI." ~$542M MC. OpenClaw/PicoClaw AI agent orchestration hardware thesis. (Confirmed: +46.12% in February; Reuters, Bloomberg, Guardian, FT coverage within 48 hours) - **2026-02-18** — $INFQ position initiated. Quantum computing (neutral-atom) with existing NASA/DoD revenue. - **2026-02-19** — $XLU OTM 2-year leaps initiated. IV ~14%. "Once-in-a-generation long due to AI." (Confirmed: "XLU strikes up 80–150% in a week" by 2026-02-25; "$XLU 2.56% in a week" = triple-digit option returns) - **2026-02-20** — YTD: 237% confirmed. "Level 5: making market makers cry after consistently finding mispricing." - **2026-02-21** — $XLU detailed macro model post: datacenter power usage 2024 → 2028 +415%, hyperscaler capex +445%, PJM capacity pricing from $28.92 → $329.17/MW-day. "2026 is an absolute historical anomaly." - **2026-02-22** — $EWY time-zone arbitrage: US futures $EWY up → SK Hynix Frankfurt (HY9H) flat = statistical arbitrage opportunity to buy SK Hynix EU before it catches up. - **2026-02-24** — Yamamura Glass (TYO: 5210) thesis. $240M MC vs. $360M+ book value; photonics division growing 91% Y/Y; 5.5% dividend increase as "structural" signal. "Buying the company for free." (Stock +20.3% same day) - **2026-02-25** — $IQE initiated. Largest outsourced epiwafer foundry globally. £45M gross debt "pennies to hyperscalers." Restructuring optionality trade. - **2026-02-25** — $AXTI at ~$1.9–2.1B MC; personal position up 310% in 2 months. "Multi-hop connection mapping — the way to find alpha markets haven't priced in." - **2026-02-26** — YTD: 477.27% post-NVDA earnings. "Majority of gains are result of research done the past few months." - **2026-02-27** — $AAOI blowout earnings. "One of the only 'Made in America' transceivers." 900%+ revenue growth guidance to $4.35B ARR by mid-2027. Forward P/E ~6.4x if projections met. Called it "the next $SNDK" and "early $SNDK." Made one of largest photonics positions. (819 ♥, 448K views on second-order effects post; 1,308 ♥, 312K views on "looks like an early $SNDK" post) - **2026-02-28** — Iran airstrike by Israel. Called it "fully frontrun by institutions" — oil ($CVX, $XLE up 22–26% YTD) and defense ($NOC, $LMT up 27–36% YTD) already priced in. Warned retail against chasing oil/defense at ATHs after event; advised using any high-beta selloff to add to long positions. "Rule of thumb: War is bullish as long as it's not on your own territory." (1,090 ♥, 176K views; 1,378 ♥, 131K views) - **2026-02-28** — YTD total: ~477% as of late February; closed month at 477.27%.